Venezuela’s falling oil supply is a major ‘challenge’ to global energy markets

17 March, 2019, 12:27 | Author: Eric Barnett
  • All the world a stage Rising U.S. oil clout on show in Houston

"WTI has reached a new swing high of $58.95 per barrel Friday morning after OPEC announced it will stay committed to supply cuts until the June OPEC meeting", Amir Hekmati, trader at TradeFlow, told UPI.

BNP Paribas strategist Harry Tchilinguirian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum: "Buyers with (Iran oil) waivers are likely going to hold back until there is more clarity in the USA administration's position".

The IEA left unchanged its forecast for non-OPEC supply increasing to 64.4 mbd this year from a revised 62.7 mbd in 2018, a gain of 1.7 mbd. This led to the US taking a number of steps in the 1980s to take away OPEC's monopoly in determining oil prices, and the USA has strengthened global commodity markets with Chicago and NY.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russian Federation - known as the OPEC+ alliance - have been withholding around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in crude supply from the start of the year to tighten markets and prop up prices.

With a nationwide blackout that paralysed the country for one week, demonstrating the unreliability of the country's electricity network, new questions are being raised about Venezuela's ability to continue to produce and export oil.

The IEA, on the other hand, foresees that OPEC countries will reduce their production to 380,000 barrels per day by 2024 such that the global oil prices will not decline.

An unexpected dip in US crude oil inventories and production supported prices, traders said.

"Geopolitics has added another complication to the global oil market", said the IEA.

With production in Canada also increasing, and most of its exports moving to USA refineries, more United States crude should be available for export.

"The market is taking a pause as it tries to digest mixed reports that give us different ideas of future supply and demand", said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures group in Chicago. With increasing competition, the global demand for OPEC production will not return to pre-2016 levels during the period in question.

While Friday put an end to crude's daily winning streak due to a return of fears that the global economy will weaken and American production is skyrocketing, US oil ended the week 4.1 percent higher, and Brent was up 1.9 percent.

USA crude ended the week 4.1 percent higher, and Brent was up 1.9 percent.

It was also reported that Saudi Arabia exceeded its reduction commitments to 170 per cent. As stated by Per Magnus Nysveen, one of the partners at Rystad Energy, with the increase in USA oil and gas exports, the US trade deficit will vanish and its foreign debts will be quickly paid, emphasizing that US exports increased by 2 million barrels a day last year and that they will surpass that of Saudi Arabia's this year by growing by 1 million barrels a day this year. Production in Iran and Libya, also exempt, was little changed.



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