U.S. Employment Rises Much Less Than Expected In September

07 October, 2018, 20:41 | Author: Eric Barnett
  • BACK TO WORK: Unemployment Drops to 3.7%, Lowest Since DECEMBER 1969

Employers likely added 185,000 nonfarm payrolls on net while the unemployment rate returned to an 18-year low of 3.8%, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. For close to two-thirds of the United States population, this is the lowest unemployment rate in their lifetime.

Hospitals added 12,000 jobs last month, 47% of total healthcare hiring, and easily beating out ambulatory's 10,300 jobs. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 to 62.7 percent.

And many analysts see the unemployment rate continuing to decline this year, ramping up pressure on wages and prices.

The broader measure of labor underutilization, U-6, which measures the total unemployed plus marginally attached workers along with part-time workers for economic reasons, is at 7.5%, near its all-time low of 6.8% recorded in 2000.

There were fewer jobs, however, added to the US economy in September than analysts expected. department figures showed about 134,000 new jobs for September - well below the 185,000 anticipated by experts.

In both the USA and Canada in September, there was shrinkage in the unemployment rate.

Canada as a whole added 229,100 jobs in September of 2017 compared to September 2018.

And leisure and hospitality was down by 17,000 over the month. Friday's report revised August's count of new jobs from 201,000 to 270,000, while July's tally was revised from 165,000 new jobs. Our research shows that the potential labor supply is sizable and elastic, especially along prime working-age persons. But, workers remain sidelines. We expect average hourly earnings to rise to 3% by year-end. The combination of gains in employment and moderate increases in wages is lifting disposable incomes. In other words, just a sliver of gain for workers.

Employment showed little or no change over the month in major industries such as wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities and government jobs. The 2018 year-to-date gain is 189,000 compared to 207,000 for 2017.

In U.S. industrial sectors other than construction, September's largest month-to-month staffing improvements occurred in "professional and business services", +54,000; "health care and social assistance", +30,000; and "transportation and warehousing", +24,000. The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not reflect those of Berenberg Capital Markets, LLC.



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