Oil steadies near 4-year high as supply fears counter stockpiles

07 October, 2018, 12:28 | Author: Eric Barnett
  • Iran's Oil Minister Zanganeh arrives for an OPEC meeting in Vienna

Trump's trade war with the world might run out of steam when oil hits $100 a barrel - and this scenario might occur as early as December.

Oil prices rose today as traders anticipated a tighter market due to United States sanctions against Iran's crude exports, which are set to start next month. "Well, probably to some extent he's right, but we are absolutely OK with it at $65 to $75 per barrel to ensure the efficient operation of oil companies and ensure investment", Putin told delegates at the Russia Energy Week forum in Moscow.

Many analysts say they expect Iranian exports to drop by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Saudi Arabia sends its oil to the Asian market dominated by China, while Iraq sends its oil more to European and American markets.

Saudi Arabia, Opec's largest producer, is now pumping about 10.7 million barrels per day, Falih told reporters in Moscow, just shy of the record set in November 2016. He reiterated the Kingdom's plan is to meet existing demand.

An expectation of tighter markets is fuelling bullish financial oil market sentiment. I'm talking about sanctions against Iran, about political problems in Venezuela and just looking at what's happening in Libya.

During the latest meeting, "both sides actively discussed the US' reimposition of sanctions against Iran", while Tokyo reiterated its basic principle that Japanese corporate activity should not be impacted by the U.S. sanctions, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Tuesday, Platts reported.

Oil is now above $85 per barrel for the first time since 2014. That agreement proved a watershed in causing oil prices to rally to the current four-year peaks. Meanwhile, Brent oil price for December delivery advanced 1.49 USA dollars to 86.29 US dollars per barrel.

It's kept rebounding since, but the largest factor in the approach to $100 a barrel is Trump's desire to cripple Iran by halting its oil exports.

It's now T minus 30 days and counting until the Trump administration's November 4 deadline for crude importers to stop purchasing Iranian product. The kingdom has lifted production nearly to a record and may raise it again next month, although doing so will infringe on available spare capacity, limiting Saudi Arabia's ability to react to other supply shocks. This scant boost will be unable to fully offset global supply disruptions over the coming months.

"Trump thought he could shrink our country's oil revenues by imposing sanctions on Iran's oil and cutting its exports, but the rise in oil prices did not let that happen", Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, the head of Iran's Planning and Budget Organization, said Thursday.


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