Pound Slips to Lowest Since November Versus Euro on No-Deal Fear

12 August, 2018, 14:24 | Author: Eric Barnett
  • Pound Slips to Lowest Since November Versus Euro on No-Deal Fear

The Bank of England policymakers were also upbeat on the United Kingdom economy while saying the growth is expected to remain modest by historical standards, but higher compared to the beginning of this year.

He believes that a no-deal Brexit is now more likely than an agreed withdrawal, putting the odds at "60-40".

Connor Campbell, financial analyst at SpreadEx, said: "The fears of a no-deal Brexit have really gathered steam in the last few sessions, a snowball effect stemming from Mark Carney and Liam Fox's warnings either side of the weekend".

Unless there are optimistic Brexit developments in the coming days, or investors opt to sell the Indian Rupee from its recent highs, the Pound to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate is unlikely to recover for some time.

The pound fell below $1.29 for the first time since September 2017 on Wednesday as fears about a possible no-deal Brexit continued.

Still, analysts expect the Pound's recovery was limited and was due to rebound rather than any optimistic news.

Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the Pound as traders await negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union to begin again in the coming weeks.


Although Ian McCafferty is an external Monetary Policy Committee member who is leaving the MPC at the end of this August, his hawkish views are well known as he was voting for a rate hike since March until the Bank of England raised the Bank rate to 0.75 percent last week delivering dovish monetary policy outlook.

This has largely been due to market concerns about the possibility of a US-sparked trade war lightening somewhat, and U.S. protectionist rhetoric with ally nations softening.

The day's biggest dataset will be Britain's June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth results, which include growth data from June and growth projections for Q2 2018.

"The currency is likely to remain depressed ahead of Friday's second quarter UK GDP report, which could offer fresh insight into the health of Britain's economy", he said.

McCafferty said that no-deal Brexit would cause short-term economic disruption and that the market expectations for a couple of rate hikes during the next two years are acceptable.

Other notable data due on Friday includes France's June industrial production results, June industrial and manufacturing production from the United Kingdom, and Britain's Q2 business investment results.

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